One fear I have

One fear I have is overlooking what would seem obvious warning sings which eventually lead to disaster. This may very well be the case these days for the situation in the West Bank.


Since the beginning of the autumn, I have found alerts such as the one seen above several times per week (sometimes even twice a day) as I opened my phone. There has been a constant trickle of improvised attacks by Palestinians or Israeli Arabs mostly against Israeli civilians around West Jerusalem and Hebron, leaving so far 19 dead. Most often, the attacker's weapon of choice is a simple knife or a car, which among other things leads to think that the attacks are not organized nor coordinated. Furthermore, many times the assailant ends shot dead (89 so far) by either Israeli security services or private security guards, something which may or may not represent a disproportional use of force (I do not have the data to say).

At first, I did consider those attacks as a possible prelude to an imminent escalation of violence in the zone. And so did many else: there was broad media coverage of the attacks and meetings in the UN Security Council. The Israeli Defense Forces installed checkpoints in the entrances to some neighbourhoods in West Jerusalem. Scholars debated whether we were seen the beginning of the third intifada, with a majority in disagreement with such statement. The most high-profile proposal was the installation of Security Cameras around Temple Mount as a confidence-building measure. And since then... mostly silence.

But one month, after I still keep getting alerts on my phone. The pace of attacks may be lower now, but they do continue. However, global attention is already somewhere else. And that is what I fear: not only that the issue is not solved (the attacks, not the broader Palestinian question), but that any future attack may trigger a generalized escalation of violence that threatens stability in the zone.

Why I fear what a continuation of attacks might trigger

 

“We are sitting on top of a kind of powder keg. Unless significant change occurs, mostly or entirely in the diplomatic arena, we will probably keep experiencing what we’re experiencing today.”

Brig. Gen. Guy Goldstein, deputy coordinator of Israeli Government Activities in the Territories

It is very true that despite its frequency, these attacks are minor compared with the brutal bloodbath seen in many other parts of the world, for example just in neighbouring Syria. And even so, there are three reasons why any possible escalation could be devastating:

1. Complete political gridlock

The first is that this episode is taking place in the midst of a both long and short-term complete political deadlock. On the short-term, the Palestinian Authority is increasingly losing control of what happens in Palestine. It has no strategy for the future, and for months rumors have been constant of Mahmoud Abbas' resignation, and even of the PA's collapse. On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu enjoys since the March elections a majority of 61 over 120 in the Knesset, as his Likud party joined forces with far-right and settlers' parties, who have pressured for stronger measures against Palestinians. As talks to form a government of national unity with the center-left Zionist Union have so far been unfruitful, Netanyahu (leaving aside his own ideological considerations) has little room to maneuver toward more diplomatic tracks.

And to make things worse, all this is part of the "post-Protective Edge" scenario. "Protective Edge" was not only a humanitarian disaster, but also certified the failure of a serious US-brokered negotiation process. And since such a collapse, no one has been able to sit the parties at the table again. Bot the European Union and the United States seem determined to support any possible initiative, but so far their pleas have only led to frustration because they have found no political will on the ground; simply because there is no trust and no appetite for concessions.

2. A two one-state solution is no solution at all*

The second reason is that in the current context, the possibilities for a future two-state solution may just be disappearing. This is not only due to the constant expansion of Israeli settlements, but mostly because of the possibilities for the PA to resign, cancel the Oslo Accords and throw in the towel, given the loss of legitimacy, leadership and hope. This would force Israel to take a larger role in the occupied territories, and unless a new political organization is created, would leave Hamas as the main "representative" of the Palestinian people. Therefore, if a two-state solution has been impossible to achieve up to know, it would be even less probable in such conditions.

So, if a two-state solution becomes unfeasible, isn't the only alternative a one-state solution? Yes, in theory, until you look at the demographics. Because it is clear that if equal rights are given to Palestinians, Israelis would lose their control over the state. While this is logical to any heterogeneous state, it seems highly unlikely that the current Israeli political landscape would allow that to happen.

3. Peace in Jerusalem means peace in the Middle East (eventually)

Finally, the third reason why an outbreak of violence in the West Bank would be catastrophic is due to the great symbolism of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This is because in an age in which extremists are eager to frame relations between the West and the Muslim world as no less than a full-fledged war of religion, a more prosperous Middle East would negate extremists' claims and directly tackle the breeding ground for radicalization. And in such efforts, Palestine in general and Jerusalem in particular take center stage. Its occupation, as well as the lack of rights for Palestinians have long been the first grievance not only by extremists but also many moderate islamists; as at least according to them, the West has been accomplice to the occupation. Therefore, the solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (or at least the credible hope that a solution can be reached in the near future) would not only solve a pending issue since the end of World War II, but also open the door to greater legitimacy and leverage in a Middle East in turmoil.

*Note: On 5 December, US Secretary of State John Kerry pronounced those very words during the Saban Forum.